基于马尔科夫灰色残差 GM（1，1）模型的火灾损失预测

摘要

Scientific prediction of fire accidents and its loss has important practical significance for the development of fire prevention and control measures .Combined with the fire loss data in China between 2002 and 2011 ,the Markov grey resid-ual error GM (1 ,1 ) model is used to simulate and forecast the fire loss .The results demonstrate that this model has higher prediction accuracy than that of GM (1 ,1 ) model ,thus it has provided a simple and reliable method for fire loss prediction .%科学地预测火灾事故及其损失，对于制定火灾防控措施具有重要的现实意义。应用基于马尔科夫的灰色残差GM （1，1）模型，对2002—2011年全国火灾损失进行模拟和预测，结果表明，该模型预测精度明显高于GM（1，1）模型，为火灾损失的预测提供了一种简单而可靠的新途径。