海洋平台疏散过程中的人因可靠性分析

摘要

Human factors play an important role in the process of safety evacuation on offshore platform. In this pa-per,in order to analyze the human and organizational factors that impact the evacuation,human reliability model of e-vacuation process is established by using NETICA software and human reliability is quantitatively evaluated using Bayesian Network model to discuss the effects of human factors on safety evacuations. Due to the lack of human error data,evidence theory is used to determine the prior probabilities based on expert judgments. The main contributing factors of safety evacuation are found through sensitivity analysis. Finally,the human error probability is calculated u-sing the Successful Likelihood Index Method,which is compared with those from Bayesian Network and it is found that the two calculation results are basically consistent.%在海洋平台安全疏散过程中,人因组织因素起着重要的作用.为了研究人因组织因素对海洋平台疏散过程的影响,本文利用NETICA软件建立了海洋平台安全疏散人因可靠性模型,并利用贝叶斯网络评估疏散过程中人因可靠性,定量分析了人因组织因素对安全疏散的影响;由于缺乏人因失误数据,本文利用专家判断和证据理论确定贝叶斯网络的先验概率;通过敏感性分析找到影响安全疏散的薄弱环节;最后利用成功似然指数法计算安全疏散中人因失误概率,并且和贝叶斯网络得到的失误概率进行比较,两种方法得到的结果基本一致.