In inventory impawn financing business, some factors, such as ordering cycle and price, are difficult to predict accurately, which make the quantitative evaluation of firm profit complicated. To solve this problem, an enterprise profit model under inventory impawn financing business is developed. With this model, two types of experts' opinions for uncertain parameters are fused by using evidence theory such that probability distributions of uncertain parameters are derived. Then, probability distribution of enter-prise profit under inventory impawn financing business is analyzed by using Monte Carlo simulation. Re-sults indicate that the proposed method is useful and effective. The method is also more practical than an interval analysis approach and can provide quantitative evidences for decision-makers who are risk-averse or risk preferential.%针对市场波动、存在诸多不确定性因素的情况下,资金需求企业难以对采用存货质押融资业务后的利润进行评估的问题,建立了存货质押融资后的企业利润模型,采用证据理论分别对2种类型的专家信息进行融合,据此构造不确定参数的概率分布.在此基础上,运用Monte Carlo抽样得出采用存货质押业务后企业利润的概率分布.数值算例表明,该方法简单有效,比区间分析法得到的结果更具实际指导意义,可为风险厌恶、风险偏好等各类决策者提供融资后利润的定量分析结果.
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