Flight safety is the core of air traffic safety management; hence, it is important to develop effective evaluation methods to assess the risk of flight safety. A systematical framework combining two theoretical models including fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) and analytic network process (ANP) is proposed to tackle the interdependence modeling problem among different evaluation criteria. Firstly, criteria interdependence among difference factor groups are discussed and measured utilizing the FCM-ANP hybrid model to furnish the construction of criteria interdependence measurement matrix. Based upon the obtained matrix, ANP is employed to calculate the stable criteria weights and FCM is used to identify the converged state of criteria values. The decision making trial and laboratory method (DEMATEL) is then implemented to analyze the key criteria factors influencing flight safety and based on the identified key factors, different improvement scenarios can be designed and their effects simulated through FCM model to select the best risk mitigation policy. Finally, a case study adapted from a real airline company's operational data is used to demonstrate the proposed method and verify its feasibility.%提出了运用模糊认知图(FCM)和网络层次分析法(ANP)相结合的评估模型,对指标间存在的复杂相互影响关系进行量化测度,构建影响关系矩阵,计算指标收敛权重及指标稳定状态值;进一步运用决策试验与实验室法(DEMATEL)分析获得影响航班风险的主要因素,针对这些关键指标,设计改进情景,计算不同改进方案的效果,为航班运行控制提供有效的决策优化方向,从而实现风险的主动管控;最后通过应用案例验证了方法的可行性.
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