工业化、城镇化与农业现代化的长短期动态研究--基于SVAR模型的实证分析

摘要

工业化、城镇化以及农业现代化是实现我国经济战略转型和保证我国经济持续健康发展的重要动力。本文使用我国宏观经济数据、通过建立SVAR模型对三者之间的关系进行研究，结果显示：三者之间存在长期稳定关系，而且脉冲响应和方法分解结果显示，短期我国城镇化和工业化对农业现代化有负向影响，但是在长期，总体为正面效应，但作用较小，效果并不显著。此外，城镇化对于其自身和农业现代化、工业化冲击对城镇化和农业现代化产生的冲击较为持久。%Industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization are important to realize the strategic transformation of our country economy and guarantee economic sustainable and healthy development of the our country. In this article,we use macro economic data to study the relations between these three economic variables by SVAR model,the results showed that there is a long-term and stable relationship between industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization.According to the impulse response method and variance decomposition, in the short-term,urbanization and industrialization in China has a negative effect on agricultural modernization, but in the long run, the overall effect is positive, but the effect is so small that it is not significant. In addition, the urbanization impact on its own and agricultural modernization, industrialization effect on urbanization and agricultural modernization are more durable.