基于状态空间模型的我国物流业对经济增长的传导效应研究

摘要

建立状态空间模型来揭示物流业对经济增长传导效应，通过卡尔曼滤波算法估计时变参数，发现1978年以来我国物流业对经济增长的传导效应明显分为两个阶段，并在此基础上提出了物流产业转型期提高物流业对经济增长传导的正弹性效应、发展物流业的路径选择。%By using Kalman filter algorithm,this paper established the state space model , and esti-mated the time-varying parameter of logistics on economic growth to demonstrate the laws of conduction effect of logistics on economic growth in China. The result indicated that the conduction effect of logistics on econom-ic growth was obviously divided into two phases. And based on this,in the period of logistics transition,we put forward the path selection on enhancing the positive marginal effect of the elasticity effect of logistics on e-conomic growth,and the path selection on developing Logistics.