民族地区转移支付、工业发展与县域经济增长--基于县级面板数据的实证分析

摘要

It is necessary to investigate systematically whether fiscal transfers for ethnic regions promote local economic growth,financial viability and its mechanism especially the role of industry enterprises in the progress . The paper evaluates the impacts of fiscal transfers for ethnic regions on local economic growth and in-dustrial development by using the panel data of 1998 -2010 in China. The empirical results are as follows. (1 )Fiscal transfers for ethnic regions have significantly increased incomes per capita by 3 percent per year during the period. (2)The effect is prominent in the early stage of the implementation of the policy,and it has been remained strong in subsequent years. (3)Fiscal transfers for ethnic regions stimulate local economic growth by developing industries,especially heavy industries. The growth rate of heavy industry of industrial value added and employment growth have been significantly improved. The research provides enlightenments and guides for development of the poverty-stricken area.%民族地区转移支付是否促进了民族县经济增长，是否提高了其财政自生能力？其中影响机制怎样，工业企业在此过程中扮演什么角色，发挥着怎样的作用？这些问题有待系统而深入的研究。使用1998－2010年中国县级面板数据分析民族地区转移支付对民族县工业发展、经济增长的影响，并探讨其内在影响机制。研究发现：（1）民族地区转移支付使民族县经济增长率显著上升了大约3个百分点；（2）民族地区转移支付对经济增长的刺激作用突出表现在政策实施的初期，刺激作用在后续年份仍然保持着较强的效果；（3）转移支付通过大力发展工业尤其是重工业来刺激经济增长，使重工业企业增加值和就业人数的增速显著上升。最后是完善落后区域转移支付政策的相关启示。