城镇居民收入和农产品价格对农民收入的动态影响

摘要

运用向量自回归模型研究了1978~2011年农产品价格和城镇居民收入对农民收入的动态影响。结果表明，农民收入主要受自身上期的影响，农民收入具有自我增进机制。农产品生产价格上涨对农民收入有正向、时滞的影响，农业生产资料价格对农民收入增长具有微弱的负向影响。城镇居民收入对农民收入有较强的长期正向效应，应建立城镇居民收入对农民收入的良性作用机制。%The dynamic effects of the prices of agricultural production and urban residents’ income on farmers’ income dur-ing 1978 and 2011 were analyzed with using vector autoregressive model. The results showed that the farmers’ income with self, improving mechanism mainly affected by previous income. The rise of production prices had a delayed and positive ef-fect on farmers’ income. Prices of agricultural means of production had a weak and negative influence on the rural income growth. The increase of urban residents’ income had a strong long-term positive effect on farmers’ income. A benign mecha-nism between them should be established.