基于灰色系统理论的桂林旅游需求预测与分析

摘要

针对桂林旅游需求和旅游人数发展趋势预测问题，构建了基于灰色系统理论的桂林市旅游需求预测模型，并采用残差检验、后验差检验等方法对模型进行了综合分析。结果表明：GM（1，1）模型预测结果数据精确，可运用于桂林市旅游发展预测。此外，运用该模型对未来3年的桂林旅游需求进行了预测，并就桂林作为国家综合改革试验区的背景下，如何提高旅游目的地的服务水平和供给能力提出建议。%　　Aimed at these problems of Guilin tourism demand and tourist number prediction,the article constructed the Guilin tourists’demand forecast model based on the grey system theory,analyzes the model with residual test, after residual test and relation. The results show that the forecasting data of the GM(1,1) model is precise and it can be used for prediction of Guilin city tourism development. In addition,using the model to predict the future 3 years to Guilin tourism demand,and puts forward suggestions on to improve the service level and supply ability of tourism destination based on the background of Guilin national synthetically reform testing district.