基于GIS的秦岭暴雨灾害风险评价研究

摘要

以陕西秦岭为研究区域，应用16个县、市的DEM地理、气象、社会经济等数据，运用克里格插值法、层次分析法（AHP）和极差标准化等，从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体脆弱性以及防灾减灾能力等方面建立陕西秦岭地区暴雨灾害风险评价模型；利用GIS软件中的自然断点分类法、去量纲化和栅格计算器分析等方法，进行陕西秦岭地区暴雨灾害风险指数的计算分析。结果表明：汉中市、石泉县、安康市和商南县处在暴雨灾害高风险区，宝鸡市、商州市处在低风险区；将暴雨灾害风险综合指数图与近10年陕西秦岭地区暴雨灾害实际发生情况进行对比，与实际基本吻合，风险评价精度较高，为陕西秦岭地区暴雨灾害预警及防灾减灾提供借鉴。%By using of geographical,meteorological and sociometric data of 16 counties in Shaanxi Qinling Mountains, based on the Kriging interpolation method,Analytic Hierarchy Process method and the maximum difference normalization method,a assessment system of rainstorm hazard risk was set up from the risk of hazard causing factors,the sensitivity of hazard pregnant environment,the vulnerability of hazard bearing body and the ability of hazard prevention and mitigation. The comprehensive risk index model of the rainstorm hazard has been established though adopting methods of Natural breakpoint taxonomy,standardized and Raster calculator analysis in ArcGIS software. Finally,in order to put these methods mentioned into practice,selected Shaanxi Qinling Mountains as study area,the spatiotemporal and quantitative analyzing and assessing of rainstorm hazard risk have been carried out. Results indicate that Hanzhong City,Shiquan County,An’kang City and Shangnan County are in high risk areas of rainstorm hazard,while Baoji City,Shangzhou District in lower ones. Comparing the figures of comprehensive risk index with the frequency of rainstorm hazard in Shaanxi Qinling Mountains in recent 10 years,the results are similar. Because of the high accuracy of risk evaluation,these results above can provide reference for the heavy rainstorm hazard warning and prevention in Qinling Mountains of China and other same type climatic regions in the world.