江苏省产业结构升级、城市化与碳排放的动态关系r——基于VAR模型的实证研究

摘要

We set up the VAR model on the basis of processing and inspection of the raw date of Jiangsu Province industrial structure upgrade,urbanization and carbon from 1995 to 2014. Through Johansen Cointegration test,impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis ,we draw the following conclusions. There is a two-way relationship between every two of the upgrading of industrial structure,urbanization and carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province,and the upgrade of industrial structure and urbanization have certain hysteresis effect on carbon emissions. The upgrade of industrial structure can reduce carbon emissions,but the effect is not obvious in the long term. Carbon emissions have positive and negative effect of urbanization ,its negative effects is in the short term but it has a positive feedback effect in the long run. Urbanization is the important reason for carbon emissions,and a healthy urbanization can promote the optimization and the promotion of industrial structure.%在对1995—2014年江苏省产业结构升级、城市化与碳排放的原始数据进行处理与检验的基础上建立VAR模型,并通过Johansen协整检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解的分析,得出以下结论:江苏省产业结构升级、城市化与碳排放两两间存在双向关系,产业结构升级和城市化对碳排放有一定的滞后效应,产业结构升级可以降低碳排放量的作用不明显.城市化对碳排放有正反两方面的作用,短期内呈负效应但长期内存在正的反馈作用,并且城市化是碳排放的重要原因,健康的城市化能对产业结构的优化升级起到促进作用.