为了预测火电机组在变工况状态下的运行最优值,提高燃煤电厂的燃煤效率,依据燃煤火电厂3个月的各项数据,通过分析并挖掘燃煤火电厂与供电煤率密切相关的可调控参数(主蒸汽温度、主蒸汽压力)随时间的变化关系,利用Holt-Winters时间序列法进行预测.经过计算发现,通过Holt-Winters方法得到的主蒸汽温度和主蒸汽压力的相对误差值分别为0.28%和2.13%.实验结果表明:Holt-Winters时间序列法对预测燃煤火电厂火电机组在变工况下的运行数据是合理的,且其误差小,对燃煤火电厂提高火电机组的燃煤效率具有一定的指导意义.%In order to predict the thermal power generating units in operation status under the optimal value,improve the efficiency of coal-fired power plant,according to the data of three months,through the analysis and mining of coal-fired power plants and coal supply rate closely related to the control parameters (this paper mainly introduces the main steam temperature,steam pressure) with time change,it's forecasted by using Holt-Winters time series.It is found that the relative error of the main steam temperature and the main steam pressure obtained by the Holt-Winters method is 0.28% and 2.13%.The experimental results show that the Holt-Winters time series method to predict the operation data of thermal power units in coal-fired power plant under changing condition is reasonable,and the error is small,providing a certain significance to improve the efficiency of coal-fired thermal power units for coal-fired power plants.
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