运用GM（1,1）模型和曲线回归模型预测辽阳市丙肝发病趋势

摘要

目的：预测辽阳市丙肝的发病趋势，为制定防控措施提供科学依据。方法利用辽阳市丙肝发病资料，建立GM(1，1)模型和曲线回归模型预测辽阳市丙肝发病趋势。结果辽阳市丙肝发病数的GM (1，1)预测模型为=（123+259.0685/0.1304)e0.1304t-259.0685/0.1304。预测值与实测值偏离较大；曲线回归模型为y=146.134+10.101x+19.234x2-1.466x3，该预测模型的拟合效果较好。结论曲线回归模型可较好地预测辽阳市丙肝发病趋势。%Objective To predict the incidence trend of hepatitis C in Liaoyang, and provide scientific ba-sis for further prevention and control of hepatitis C. Methods GM(1,1) model and curve regression model were ap-plied to predict the incidence trend of hepatitis C in Liaoyang. Results GM(1,1) model forecast equation was=(123+259.0685/0.1304)e0.1304t-259.0685/0.1304. The predicted values deviated from the measured values seriously. Curve regression model was y=146.134+10.101x+19.234x2-1.466x3, and the model fitted well. Conclusion Curve regression model fits well for predicting the trend of hepatitis C in Liaoyang.