新疆鸡蛋价格波动特点及影响因素分析

摘要

为促进鸡蛋产业的健康发展、提升城乡居民消费水平、提高养殖户的经济收益等方面提供参考,基于成分分解方法分析了新疆鸡蛋价格波动的特点,并利用线性回归模型考察鸡蛋价格主要因素的影响程度.结果表明:价格趋势成分决定了鸡蛋价格的总体走势,价格季节成分、周期成分和随机成分的影响使鸡蛋价格围绕趋势成分呈波动上升趋势；从长期来看,蛋鸡合成饲料价格对鸡蛋价格的影响程度最大,其次是蛋用雏鸡价格、鸡肉价格和CPI,禽流感疫情规模对鸡蛋价格的影响程度相对较小.%The fluctuation characteristics in egg price was analyzed by the component decompose method and the influence degree of main factors affecting egg price was evaluated by the linear regression model to promote the healthy development of egg industry,enhance consumption level of urban and rural residents and improve farmers' economic income in Xinjiang.The results showed that the overall trend of egg price was affected by the price trend components and the trend components around egg price presented the fluctuation rising trend because of influence of price seasonal component,periodical component and random component.In the long term,the synthetic diet price for laying hens had the great effect on egg price,followed by chick price,chicken price and CPI.The avian influenza epidemic scale had the slight effect on egg price.