贵州粮食生产与粮食安全保障能力的县域差异分析

摘要

In order to give governments at all levels in Guizhou advices on planning grain production scientifically and promoting food safety guarantee,according to the grain production and cultivated land statistics of the counties in Guizhou from 2000 to 2012,the authors calculated the ratio of grain production to cultivated land area,annual mean grain growth rate,grain production potential and food safety guarantee degree,then used ArcGIS software to make spatial visualization of the results.The results showed that:1)The county difference of ratio of grain production to cultivated land area was obvious,the counties in the north was the highest in general,followed by the south,and the middle was the lowest;2)Total grain production grew in fluctuation during 2000 - 2011,and counties with higher growth rate located in Qiannan,Qianxinan,Liupanshui and Bijie,with the average growth rate of 12% ~ 36%;3)The grain production potential index of the counties in the northeast of Guizhou was the lowest,which took second place in the middle ,and the highest in the northwest;4)The food safety guarantee degree of the counties in the north of Guizhou followed the sequence of north> sowth> midlle.There was imbalance between grain supply and demand of the counties.In the past 13 years the food lacking amount has accumulated 12. 836 5 million tons and 27.656 3 million tons based on subsistence level and well-off level respectively.%为了向贵州各级政府科学规划粮食生产布局与提高粮食安全保障能力提供参考依据，利用2000-2012年贵州县域粮食总产量与耕地资源数据，对贵州88个县（市、区）的粮食产量与耕地面积比、粮食年均增长率、粮食生产潜力及粮食安全保障度进行了测算，并利用 ArcGIS 软件对测算结果进行了空间可视化。结果表明：1）贵州粮食产量与耕地面积比的县域差异显著，总体上北部县域最高，中部最低，南部中等；2）2000-2012年贵州粮食总产量在波动中增长，其中粮食总产量增速较快的县（市、区）主要分布在黔南州、黔西南州、六盘水地区和毕节地区，其多年粮食平均增长率为12％～36％；3）贵州东北部县域的粮食生产潜力指数最低，中部次之，西南部最高，其中毕节市、六盘水市与黔西南州实现增产的可能性较大；4）贵州北部县域粮食安全保障能力最高，南部次之，中部最低，县域粮食供给与需求不平衡，13年间贵州基于温饱水平与小康水平下的粮食累计缺额分别为1283．65万 t 与2765．63万 t，粮食增产工作任重道远。