风力和光伏发电短期功率预测研究进展与展望

摘要

Wind and solar generating is provided with strong volatility and intermittent and random change of the output power may cause unfavorable impact on power supply quality and safe and stable operation of the power system.It is of im-portant significance to forecast short-time power of wind and solar generating.Therefore,this paper makes a comment on forecast method and research for short-time power of wind and solar generating and discusses uncertainty theory of impro-ving forecast precision.At last,it points out research direction and development trend of short-time power forecast of wind and solar generating in future.%风能和太阳能发电具有较强的波动性和间歇性，其输出功率随机变化会对供电质量和电力系统安全稳定运行带来诸多不利影响，进行风力、光伏短期功率预测具有重要意义。针对此，对风力和光伏发电短期功率预测方法和研究进展进行评述，并对提高光伏发电预测精度的不确定性理论进行了探讨，最后指出今后风力、光伏发电短期功率预测的研究方向及发展趋势。