基于云模型和联系数的重要电力用户供电风险研究

摘要

In allusion to problems of research on risks in power supply for important electricity customers including both quantitative attribute and qualitative attribute,a kind of decision-making model based on cloud model and connection num-ber is proposed.Firstly,the cloud model is used to transfer qualitative index affecting power supply security at power supply side into quantitative values then turn values of evaluation index into interval numbers.Secondly,a kind of method of trans-ferring interval number into connection number is proposed which uses connection between certainty and uncertainty to make final decision.Case analysis results indicate that this model is simple and effective.%针对重要电力用户供电风险研究中既存在定量属性又存在定性属性的问题，提出一种基于云模型和联系数的决策模型。首先采用云模型将影响供电侧供电安全的定性指标转化为定量值，然后把评价指标的值均转化为区间数；在此基础上提出一种将区间数转化为联系数的方法，利用模型中确定性和不确定性之间的联系做出最终的决策。案例分析结果表明该模型简单且有效。