基于改进 GM（1，1）模型的黄金价格预测

摘要

随着信息系统的发展，对黄金价格建立了基于新陈代谢理论的无偏灰色 GM（1，1）预测模型。该模型是对 GM（1，1）模型的改进，在不断补充新信息的同时，及时地去掉老信息，避免随着信息的增加，建模运算量不断增大的困难。实证结果表明，该模型预测精度优于 GM（1，1）模型及无偏 GM（1，1）模型的预测精度。%With the development of information system,an unbiased GM(1,1)prediction model of gold price is established based on the metabolism theory.The model is an improved version of GM(1,1)with the ability to update data while eliminate outdated data to avoid increased modeling calculation workload.Empirical study results show that the model prediction accuracy is better than that of GM(1,1)model and unbiased GM(1,1)model.