Effect of Revised Fuel Price Projections on the Choice of Energy Technologies in the MARKAL Model of the United States

摘要

In the International Energy Agency project on energy technology systems analysis (ETSAP), fuel price projections were made in 1981 as assumptions to be used in running the MARKAL models of energy systems of the fourteen participating countries. At that time, prices were assumed to increase continuously from 1980, whereas in fact there has been a decline in oil price. To test the results of a low oil price in the 1985 to 1990 time period, additional runs were made of the MARKAL model of the US with new price assumptions for the two basic scenarios: a high price, low demand scenario and a low price, high demand scenario. The principal difference in the results is a decline in coal liquefaction processes which appear only in the high price scenario. The Mobil M process is dropped, and coal-to-methanol and the use of methanol in automobiles is reduced. Coal hydroliquefaction, which produces a crude oil equivalent and by-product gas, continues to be used starting in 2005. The need for other technologies that substitute for imported oil - shale oil and enhanced recovery - is delayed or diminished. On the other hand, technologies that are frugal in the use of oil - improved Otto-cycle automobiles and improved burners retrofitted in oil-heated residences - prove to be more important because the replacement of oil as a fuel is delayed. Except for these differences, there is no substantial change in the ranking of new technologies shown for the US in the ETSAP Phase 3 report which is based on their potential for reducing energy system cost. 5 references, 4 figures, 4 tables. (ERA citation 10:008688)