A catastrophic debris flow event which occurred on August 7, 2010, in Zhouqu County, Gansu Province, China, killed 1364 people and a further401 people listed as missing. Landslides (including soil slides, debris slides, debris flows, etc. ) triggered by rainfall tend highly to occur almost every year in nearly all hilly and mountainous regions of China and constitute a major hazard that can cause serious loss of life. Conscious of the need to minimize casualties from future landslide events, the government departments and landslide scientists should focus on pre-landslide hazard event instead of post-landslide hazard event. Increasing preparedness through a realtime landslide forecasting system is one of the most effective ways to reduce the damage impact of the landslide hazards to life. We think it is possible to identify landslide susceptibility areas in the hilly and mountainous regions of China at a horizontal resolution of 1 x 1 -km grid cell using available techniques and data. And then the real-time forecasting system for evaluating the spatiotemporal probability of occurrence of rainfall-triggered landslides can be established, which uses the regional 24-hour forecast rainfall information and the real-time rainfall monitoring data from the rain-gauge network as its inputs, and provides 1 ~ 24-hour forecast of the landslide probability for every 1 × 1 -km grid cell in the hilly and mountainous regions. Public education on how to respond to landslide warnings and safe means of evacuation are also as important as the establishment of a prediction and warning system.%中国是一个降雨引发滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害十分频繁,灾害损失极为严重的国家.特别是,2010年8月7日甘肃舟曲县降雨引发特大泥石流,造成1364人死亡,401人失踪.如何把减灾工作重点放在灾前而不是灾后,避免舟曲群死群伤灾难事件的重演？笔者等认为,在现有数据资料和技术条件下,对全国滑坡、泥石流危害严重的丘陵山区,按1km×1km网格单元识别出滑坡、泥石流高易发区,并建立预警预报系统,以区域降雨预报和雨量监测数据为输入,按1km×1km网格单元提供1～24h滑坡和泥石流概率预报是可行的,这是减少人员伤亡的一个有效途径.把对滑坡、泥石流灾害预报预警信息的发布、接收、应急指挥、动员撤离和救援,以及对国民的地质灾害防护教育、逃生训练等工作纳入法制程序也是滑坡和泥石流减灾工作中一项必不可少的重要内容.
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