基于监测数据的马坪滑坡稳定性分析

摘要

滑坡位移变形的产生及演变,对于滑坡安全稳定性的评价至关重要.本文以德化县马坪滑坡为例,利用位移监测数据,并结时间序列模型分析滑坡体的位移变化,在此基础上结合降雨、地下水等影响因素分析对今后滑坡的稳定性进行了预测.结果表明基于位移监测数据的时间序列模型具有较高精度,对了解边坡位移的发展趋势以及研究边坡的动态稳定性是有效可行的.%Evolution of landslide displacement is vital for evaluation of landslide.Taking Maping landslide in Dehua County as an example, landslide displacement can be divided into trend term and periodic term, and predicted by time series method.Moreover, the future landslide displacement can be predicted by time series method and rainfall, groundwater and other influence factors.The result shows that time series method is suitable to predict the slope displacement and dynamic stability.