中国区域人类福利与自然消耗脱钩关系及其影响因素研究

摘要

实现人类福利水平提升与自然消耗脱钩是中国社会经济可持续发展的根本.针对此,本文基于Tapio脱钩模型分析了中国31个地区的人类福利与自然消耗的脱钩关系,并进一步研究其影响因素.研究发现:"十五"期间:有15个地区脱钩状态为强脱钩;而其余16个地区的自然消耗正增长,其中有9个地区的增长速度快于人类福利水平增长速度."十一五"期间:有25个地区均为强脱钩;而其余6个地区的自然消耗正增长,其中仅有1个地区的增长速度快于人类福利水平增长速度."十二五"期间:有28个地区为强脱钩;而其余3个地区的自然消耗正增长,其中有2个地区的增长速度快于人类福利水平增长速度.在中国区域人类福利与自然消耗关系中,技术效应起到了驱动作用,而服务效应起到抑制作用.%The realization of decoupling between human well-being level and natural consumption is fundamental to the sustainable de-velopment of Chinese society and economy.On the basis of the decoupling model of Tapio, this paper analyzes the decoupling relation-ship between human well-being and natural consumption for 31 regions in China, and then investigates its influence factors.The finding shows that during the Tenth Five-Year-Plan, 15 regions have the state of strong decoupling, while the remaining 16 regions have posi-tive growth speeds of natural consumption, in which 9 regions'growth speeds of natural consumption are larger than that of their human well-being.During the Eleventh Five-Year-Plan, 25 regions have the state of strong decoupling, while the remaining 6 regions have positive growth speed of natural consumption, in which one region's growth speed of natural consumption is larger than that of its human well-being.During the Twelfth Five-Year-Plan, 28 regions have the state of strong decoupling, while the remaining three regions have positive growth speeds of natural consumption, where two regions'growth speeds of natural consumption are larger than that of their hu-man well-being.In the relationship between regional human welfare and natural consumption in China, technological effects play a driv-ing role, while service effects play an inhibitory role.