西南林区森林火灾火险预报模型评价研究

摘要

森林火灾火险预报模型是林火预防的主要技术手段,目前国内的火险预报模型主要针对东北林区构建,而作为全国第二大林区的西南林区迫切需要在本区域选用和构建预报效果较好的火险预报模型.本研究收集整理了国内目前主流的火险预报模型,并利用麒麟区防火办辖区内2013-2015年的实际林火资料对这些模型进行了试报,根据测报结果进行模型评价研究.研究结果表明,"全国森林火险天气等级"适用于西南林区的森林火险预报.本研究结果还可为构建该区域的本土火险预报模型提供参考.%A forest fire pre-warning model is an important technical means used in forest fire prevention.Currently,domestic fire pre-warning models are mainly intended for the northeastern forest area in China.However,the southwestern forest area,as the second largest forest area in China,urgently needs to have fire pre-warning models with better effects selected and constructed for this area.In this research,the information about main fire domestic pre-warning models is collected and sorted out and the trial pre-warning of these models is conducted using the actual forest fire data (2013-2015)of the area under the jurisdiction of Qilin Fire Office.The research result shows that the"National Forest Fire Danger Weather Rating Model"is suitable for the forest fire pre-warning in the southwestern forest area in China.The research result of this research can also provide reference for the construction of local fire pre-warning models in this area.