西双版纳大花万代兰潜在分布区预测

摘要

基于153个野外实测分布点,利用最大熵生态位模型(MAXENT)与地理信息系统(Arc-GIS),以海拔、坡度、坡向、植被、植被覆盖度、年均地表温度为环境变量,对西双版纳野生大花万代兰的适宜生境及潜在分布进行了分析.结果表明:模型预测结果可信度高(AUC =0.897);海拔、植被是影响大花万代兰生境选择的主要环境因子,模型贡献率分别达40.7％和21.9％;适宜生境区面积3 251 km2,占研究区总面积的21.2％,但83％适宜生境位于现有自然保护区之外,遭受破坏的风险较高.%This study analyzed the potential distribution of Vanda coerulea in Xishuangbanna,Yunnan,by using MAXENT and GIS (Arcgis) and based on 153 GPS points of occurrence and six environmental variables (altitude,slope,aspect,vegetation,fractional cover of vegetation (VFC),and mean annual ground temperature (MGT)).The results showed that the prediction of potential habitat for the species was reliable (AUG =0.897);the altitude and vegetation were the habitat selection determining factors,the high contributions were 40.7％,21.9％ respectively;The suitable habitat area was 3251 km2 which accounted for 21.2％ of the prefecture,but 83％ of the habitat are out of the nature reserves,and at a high risk of destruction.