我国人均收入与服务贸易进出口额的关系研究--基于31省市面板数据分析

摘要

基于2006-2012年我国31个省市的面板数据，分析我国服务贸易发展的影响因素，特别是职工年均工资对于服务贸易的影响。结果显示：我国服务贸易额受人均收入、外商直接投资及货物贸易额等因素影响显著；回归结果表明：东部地区人均收入增加对服务贸易影响显著，而中部、西部地区并不显著；在对收入按高、中、低进行划分后，解释了收入增加在中西部地区不能显著刺激服务贸易发展的原因，即处于中低收入水平下的中西部地区经济发展尚处于农业阶段或农工业时期，人均收入的增加能够显著刺激对工业产品的需求而无法促进服务贸易的发展。%The paper analyzes the influencing factors of the China’s service trade,especially the annual average wages of staff and workers,based on the panel data of the China’s 31 provinces from 2006 to 2012.From the result of the model,the annual wage,FDI,investment and goods trade have significant positive effect on the China’s service trade.In the regional model,the annual wage has positive effect on the service trade of the east,but has no effect on that of the central and the west.When we divide the data into the three parts-high income,middle income and low income,we can find the reason why the wage has no effect on the service trade.In the west and the central,they are still in the agricultural society and agricultural industrial socie-ty.The increase of income can significantly stimulate the demand of industrial products,but not the service trade.