外商直接投资与重庆市经济增长关系的实证分析

摘要

In recent years Chongqing is committed to build the new open highland and the economic growth rapidly.Based on the time series statistics data on 1995 -2014,we empirically analyze the correlation and causality between FDI and economic growth of Chongqing.The cointegration test and granger causality test show that 1% increase in FDI will be correlated with 0.71% increase in Chongqing's GDP,they bave a positive long-term correlation.In the short term,Chongqing's GDP of lag 3 and 4 are the Granger cause of FDI,and FDI of lag 1 and 2 are the Granger cause of Chongqing's GDP .%近年来，重庆致力于打造内陆对外开放新高地，经济快速发展。基于1995—2014年的时间序列数据，分析了重庆市实际利用外商直接投资和经济增长的关系。通过协整检验和格兰杰因果检验分析表明，外商直接投资每增加1％，重庆市生产总值会增长0.71％，二者之间呈现长期稳定的正相关关系；从短期看，滞后3到4期的经济增长是当期外商直接投资的格兰杰原因，滞后1到2期的外商直接投资是当期经济增长的格兰杰原因，二者轮动促进，相互作用。