我国城镇居民食品消费需求分析与预测模拟

摘要

Based on the food consumption expenditure and income data of urban residents in 31 provinces from 2006 to 2012,the paper used ELES model to analyze the food consumption demand system.On this basis,the gray prediction model GM (1,1) was used to simulate the income elasticity of each food from 2013 to 2017.Results showed that seafood with high-grade food characteristics in the long term was very sensitive to changes in income,both seafood and dairy products were the main driving force for future food consumption growth,the basie.needs of meat and vegetables are increasing incrementally,and the elasticity of income has a tendency to converge.By the influence of the transfer of rural residents to the city,the consumption demand of grain,eggs and other low-priced food increases.Survival consumption expenditure accounts for about 30％,and food consumption structure gradually changes to a balanced diet.%食品消费关系社会民生,是居民消费的重要组成部分.基于2006-2012年全国31个省份城镇居民食品消费支出和收入数据,运用ELES模型实证分析我国城镇居民食品消费需求系统.在此基础上,运用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)模拟2013-2017年各食品的收入弹性.结果表明:水产品长期具有高档食品特征,对收入变动十分敏感,其与奶制品是今后食品消费增长的主要动力;肉禽和蔬菜基本需求逐期递增,收入弹性具有收敛趋势;受农村居民向城市转移的影响,粮食、蛋类等低价食品的消费需求增加;生存型消费支出约占30％,食品消费结构逐步向膳食均衡转变.