中国M0与CPI的关系初探

摘要

研究初步探讨了中国货币M0与消费者价格指数（CPI）之间的关系。基于月度数据，在对M0和CPI序列进行了季节调整、剔除异常点并控制了春节因素以后，分别建立了单变量的ARMA模型和二元变量的VARMA模型。基于两种模型的预测精度比较，发现CPI对于M0有预测作用，而M0对CPI则没有预测作用。这说明对于M0这一口径来说，价格决定货币，而非货币决定价格。%The research first discussed on the relationships between M0 and CPI. Based on the monthly data, the author built the ARMA model of single variable and VARMA model of binary variables after seasonally adjusted, removed the outliers and controlled Spring Festival factors to the series of M0 and CPI. Compared with the prediction accuracy based on two models, the author found that CPI had a predict effect on M0, and M0 had no effect on CPI. According to this conclusion, it showed that price determined currency for M0, currency does not determined price.