基于多模型的区域气候变化预测方法比较研究--以厦门市为例

摘要

Climate change has an enormous influence on water resources ecological environment .An appropriate methodology for predicting the regional climate change can actively prompt the responding to the impacts of climate change of Xiamen .This pa-per uses the results under B1 scenario of the HadCM3 model of the Hadley Climate Prediction Research Center of the British Mete-orological Bureau and adopts delta methodology to downscale large-scale data.On top of that, the paper also obtains temperature and precipitation forecast data from Xiamen Meteorological Station , and compares it with the data getting from Weather Generator and the forecast results of EViews based on the observed data of Xiamen Meteorological Station during 1960 to 2000.On the basis of the comparison, the paper analyses the impacts further on the temperature from Xiamen Meteorological Station , precipitation simulation and forecast by the three prediction methods mentioned.Finally, the paper discusses the strengths and limitations of the three prediction methods.%研究表明，气候变化对流域水资源以及生态环境造成一定影响，找到预测区域气候变化的适宜方法，可以为厦门市应对气候变化带来的影响起到积极的推动作用。文章采用英国气象局Hadley气候预测研究中心的HadCM3模式在B1情景下的输出结果，利用Delta方法对大尺度数据进行降尺度处理，得到厦门站气温和降水预测数据，与天气发生器以及统计学ARMA模型分析得到的预测结果进行比较，分析三种方式对厦门站气温和降水模拟及预测的效果，探讨各自的优点及存在的局限性。