生态环境规划编制中多目标规划模型与环境容量的研究

摘要

当前在区域环境或生态规划编制中对经济发展与环境保护的相互关系、对环境容量和环境承载力等诸多问题缺乏深入研究,导致规划文本的科学性不足.武汉市"经济-能源-大气环境"的系统动力学模型能同步测算以GDP-PM25达标为约束的大气环境容量与经济、能源结构的发展趋势,满足多目标规划的要求,相比其他模型与方法,具有简明的优点.%In current regional environmental or ecological planning,it has been short of an in-depth study on the relationship between economic development and environmental protection,and the environmental capacity and its carry capacity This results in a situation that the planning has been lacking of scientific argumentation and rigorous logic The 'economy-energy-atmospheric environment' model by System Dynamics (SD) realizes calculating the atmospheric environmental capacity and the developing trend of environment and economy constrained by GDP and PM25 simultaneously in Wuhan city The SD model can achieve the demands of the multi-objective planning,and retains the advantage of simplicity in resolving complex problems compared with other multi-objective planning methods.