我国新能源消费与经济增长关系的实证分析

摘要

It is imperative to conduct research on the relationship between our country’s new energy use and economic growth empirically.Firstly,the analysis of Granger causality testing shows that new energy consumption is a big power to promote domestic economic development in short run,but in long run the rapid development of the domestic economy also motives the rapid development of new energy industry.Secondly,a linear regression model has been established through regarding new energy and traditional mineral energy as independent variables.The results shows that both the new energy and the traditional fossil energy consumption can boost the our country’s economic growth,but contribution rate of the new energy to the growth of GDP is approximately 24.7 times bigger than the traditional mineral energy.Therefore,it is an effective way to maintain the growth of our country’s economy at high speed to develop and explore new energy greatly,replace traditional energy with new energy gradually.%从实证的角度对我国新能源利用和经济增长的关系进行研究。首先,运用Granger因果关系检验分析发现,在短期内,新能源的消费是促进国内经济发展的一大动力。但是在长期,国内经济的高速发展也促进了新能源行业的快速发展。其次,将新能源和传统矿物质能源作为自变量建立了线性回归模型,结果表明新能源和传统矿物能源的消费均能促进我国经济的增长,但新能源对国内生产总值增长的贡献率大约是传统矿物质能源的24.7倍。因此,大力发展和探索新能源并逐渐用新能源代替传统能源,是保持我国经济高速增长的有效途径。