英国能源政策的抉择与后果

摘要

The Energy Bill that was released by the UK government recently provides us with a good chance to understand the future developments and potential impacts of its energy policy. The author believes that the reason for energy policy implementation difficultly is that modern energy systems have to meet a lot of different requirements and also to do so dynamically in an uncertain environment. This means that options have extraordinary value. If you do not know whether gas is going to be cheap or expensive, do not build an energy system that is dependent on it. What you need to do is to invest in technologies that increase your flexibility: energy efficiency, smart grid, demand management, power storage, international interconnects and electric vehicles. These may not seem cost effective on the face of it, though they offer the opportunity to flex the system to respond to future conditions.%英国政府最近公布的能源法案为我们提供了一个了解该国能源政策走向及其潜在影响的机会.笔者认为能源政策的困难,在于现代能源系统必须满足多方面的不同要求,并且必须在不确定的动态环境下实现这一点.这意味着拥有更多的政策选项非常重要.如果你不知道天然气价格的走向,就不要建立以其为基础的能源系统.你需要做的是去投资那些可以增加灵活度的技术选项:如能源效率,智能电网,需求侧管理,储能技术,跨国电网和电动汽车.尽管这些技术可能目前表面看起来成本效益并不是最大化的,但是,他们提供了灵活适应未来能源系统条件的机会.