基于BP神经网络-马尔科夫链的光伏发电预测

摘要

为了减少发电量随机性对电力系统的影响，需要对发电功率预测进行研究。通过分析影响光伏发电功率的因素，基于BP神经网络理论，在Matlab软件中建立预测模型，实现了对输出功率的短期预测，并给出了基于马尔科夫链的改进预测精度的方法。%In order to reduce impact of randomness generation capacity on power system, there is a need to study generation power forecast. Via analysis of factors of impact on photovoltaic generation power, this paper established the forecast model in Matlab based on BP neural network theory, realizing the short term forecast of output power and giving the method of improved forecast ac-curacy based on Markov chain.