基于可信性理论的主动配电网运行风险动态评估

摘要

主动配电网中的分布式电源、储能系统、灵活负荷等新技术有着不确定性和间歇性等特点，对主动配电网的安全运行构成了一定的威胁。提出一种基于风险理论的动态方法来评估主动配电网的安全水平。提出了失负荷风险、过电压风险、低电压风险、失风力发电风险几项风险指标多角度的评估主动配电网的安全状态。将方法应用于由 IEEE33节点配电网系统修改的主动配电网系统，算例结果反映了不同场景下主动配电网的运行风险状况，证实了提出的各项风险指标的有效性。%The uncertain and intermittent nature of such new technologies as distributed generation,energy storage system and flexible load in the active power distribution network threatens its operational security to some extent.This paper presents a dynamic approach based on risk theory to assess the security level of the active distribution network.Several risk indexes such as lost load risk,over-voltage risk,low-voltage risk and lost wind generation risk are set to evaluate the security level of the active distribution network under different scenarios.The proposed approach is applied to an active distribution network modified by the IEEE 33-node distribution network to demonstrate its effectiveness.The example results reflect operational risks of the active distribution network under different sceneries and verify the effectiveness of various risk indexes proposed.