中国能源需求与影响因素的协整分析

摘要

The relationship between energy demand and the main influence factors on it in China was analyzed based on the co-integration theory. The long-term equilibrium equation and error correction model were established and used to forecast the future energy demand in China. The results show that the energy demand in China in the next five years will continue to grow strongly. In order to reach the goal of total energy demand control in the Twelfth National Five-Year Plan, it is necessary to optimize the industrial structure, speed up the technical advancement and renovation, and improve energy efficiency.%基于协整理论研究中国能源需求与影响因素的均衡关系,建立中国能源需求的长期均衡方程和误差修正模型,并预测中国未来能源需求.研究结果表明,未来5年中国能源需求仍呈强劲增长势头,能源需求与影响因素的长期均衡关系进一步印证了优化调整产业结构、大力推动技术进步与创新及提高能源利用效率是实现“十二五”规划纲要提出的“合理控制能源消费总量”目标的必由路径.