对新疆全社会用电量的供给与需求进行科学合理预测分析,并提出电能消纳的有效途径,不仅能够为疆内电网的规划及运维提供参考,而且对电源建设和电能消纳政策制定具有重要意义,可以促进地区电网的可持续发展.首先对新疆2017-2030年电力需求进行了多情景预测分析,得出2030年新疆全社会用电量预计在2 823亿～3 839亿kW·h;其次,对新疆未来电力供给情况进行分析,对比得到新疆“十三五”期间将面临电力供给远大于需求的发展态势;最后提出:推进“疆电外送”通道建设、建设坚强的疆内750 kV骨干网架和扎实落实“电气化新疆”战略是解决新疆电力产能过剩现象的有效途径.%Scientific and reasonable forecasting on the supply and demand of the whole society power consumption in Xinjiang cannot only provide a reference for power grid planning and operation,but also is of great significance to the policy making for power source construction and electricity consumption and to the sustainable development of regional power grid.Firstly,this paper forecasts the electricity demand of Xinjiang under several scenarios from 2017 to 2030,and it is concluded that the whole society electricity consumption in Xinjiang in 2030 will reach 282.3 billion kW·h to 383.9 billion kW·h.And then,an analysis is made on the prospective power supply in Xinjiang,and it is concluded that Xinjiang will face the problem of power supply significantly exceeding the demand during the period of 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020).Finally,it is proposed that promoting the construction of outgoing channel of Xinjiang's electricity,building strong 750 kV backbone power grid and implementing the strategy of Xinjiang electrification are the main efficient paths for the solution to the power overproduction in Xinjiang.
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