北京市能源消费与生产的灰色关联分析及能源需求预测

摘要

北京市作为我国第2大能源消费城市，对其能源消费现状和未来需求趋势进行分析是十分必要的。以2004--2010年的数据作为样本，利用灰色综合关联度对北京市近几年的能源消费和生产的关联性进行了分析，运用DGM（1，1）模型对北京市未来5年的能源消费趋势进行了预测。结果表明：北京市近几年能源消费和生产的灰色综合关联度为0．571525，其能源消费对外地供给的依赖程度在增大，未来能源需求量将进一步增大。最后，对北京市能源发展规划提出了一些思考及建议。%Beijing is the second largest city in energy consumption in China and it＇s necessary to analyze its energy consumption status quo and the demand trend. Based on the data from the year 2004 to 2010, this paper analyzes the relationship between Beijing＇s energy consumption and production by using the grey comprehensive correlation degree method, and makes a prediction on the trend of Beijing＇ s energy consumption in the next five years by DGM （1, l） （discrete grey model）. The result shows that the grey comprehensive correlation degree between Beijing＇ s energy consumption and production is 0.571 525, the dependency of Beijing＇s energy consumption on external supply is increasing, and the energy demand in the future will increase. In the end, some ideas and suggestions are proposed for Beijing＇s energy development planning.