考虑故障处理全过程的配电网信息物理系统可靠性评估

摘要

提出一种考虑故障处理全过程的配电网信息物理系统可靠性评估方法.建立表征信息系统支撑作用的网络连通性模型和信息传输时延模型,在此基础上研究故障定位、隔离和供电恢复各阶段的可靠性模型,并进行故障后果分析.利用事件树分析故障处理的时序过程,定量描述信息系统失效对物理系统故障处理结果的影响.利用序贯蒙特卡洛方法模拟信息物理系统的时序状态序列和故障处理的动态过程,并计算系统可靠性指标.最后,针对影响信息系统功能的2个主要因素:信息元件自检率和信息传输时延,进行灵敏度分析.算例结果验证了所提方法的可行性和有效性.%A reliability assessment method of distribution network cyber-physical system considering the whole fault processing is proposed.The network connectivity model and the time-delay model of information transmission are established to respect the supporting role of the information system,based on which,the reliability model of each period of fault location,isolation and service restoration is studied and the failure effects are analyzed.The time series processes of fault processing are analyzed by event tree method to quantitatively describe the effects of information system failure on the fault processing of physical system.The state sequence of cyber-physical system and the dynamic process of fault processing are simulated by sequential Monte Carlo method and then the reliability indexes are calculated.Finally,the sensitivity analysis of self-check ratio of information equipment and information transmission time-delay,two principal factors influencing the functions of information system,is carried out.Simulative results of case studies verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.