我国初中升学率的基本状况及影响因素研究

摘要

A basic way of achieving the strategic objective for universal senior middle school education is improve the promotion rate of junior sec. school graduates(PRJSS). According to a panel data of provinces in China, The paper firstly analyses the characteristics and changes of PRJSS during year of 2003-2008. Then the determinants of PRJSS are examined using the macro educational production functions. The results indicate that PRJSS increases year by year. The PRJSS to secondary vocational schools(SVS) is lower than senior secondary schools(SSS), and to the extent, the PRJSS of girls exceeds the boys’. School resources rather than the level of economic development are the important factors in the determinants of PRJSS to SSS. But in PRJSS to SVS, economic factors play major role. And furthermore, the factors impacting on PRJSS are different for boys and girls. Some policy implications can be easily derived from above results.%　　本文以初中毕业生升学率为研究对象，利用2003-2009年省级层面的数据，分析了初中升学率的基本特征和变化趋势，并根据宏观教育生产函数模型，考察了教育资源投入和经济因素对初中升学率的影响。研究结果发现，我国总体的初中升学率呈现逐年提高的趋势，初中升中职学校的比例相对于升普通高中的比例还较低，在一些方面女生的升学率开始高于男生。初中教育资源投入水平而非经济发展水平对于初中升普通高中比例有着显著的影响，而在升中职学校方面经济因素起着主要作用；各种因素对升学率的影响也表现出性别差异。这些结果对于实现普及高中阶段教育的目标有着重要的政策意义。