全国校车需求量的估算及影响因素分析

摘要

In recent years, school bus increasingly gets attention from the public and the government. The development of school bus relates to schools, students' parents, education authority, transportation companies and school bus producers, etc. The quantity demand is a key issue that determines the development of school bus. This paper estimates the potential quantity demand of school bus from the perspective of population development and school-age population gross after reviews the former estimation method. Besides, it analyzes the factors which influence the demand of school bus based on field work and interviews in several counties and cities.%近年来，校车问题逐渐引起党和政府以及全社会的重视。校车事业涉及到学校、学生家长、教育主管部门、交通运营公司和校车生产厂家等各方。校车需求量成为校车事业或校车产业发展中的一个关键问题。本文在回顾已有校车需求量估算方法的基础上，从人口发展的视角，从学龄人口总量角度估算了校车潜在需求量，并基于实地调查分析了影响校车需求量的人口、地理、经济和政治等因素。