中国跨越“中等收入陷阱”的路径突破与政策应对*--基于地区收入差距视角

摘要

“中等收入陷阱”在本质上是收入与增长非线性相关系，而威廉姆森拐点决定着中国经济发展是否落入“中等收入陷阱”的关键。本文基于空间自相关理论提出空间基尼系数的一个分解框架，并运用威廉姆森“倒U型”理论构建“中等收入陷阱”理论模型。结果表明：中国地区收入差距与人均GDP之间存在“倒U型”非线性关系，更确切地说是 S型关系。以平滑转化回归模型测算，中国存在人均 GDP 为4189.30美元拐点，并于2005年越过拐点，但进入地区差距收敛的“高体制”路径仍有一定差距。因此，中国在政策应对上要进一步通过实施高起点的区域协调发展战略，健全宏观配套政策，配合深化收入分配体制改革，从而成功地跨越“中等收入陷阱”。%The essence of the middle-income trap is that the income level correlate nonlinearly with its growth rates. The Williamson turn point determines whether China would fall into the trap. Based on the framework of spatial Gini coefficient,this paper applies spatial autocorrelation theory to quantify the con-tribution of implicit factors. This paper also develops the model of middle-income trap based on the Wil-liamson inverted-U curve. The results show that regional income gap has the relationship of inverted-U with GDP per capita,or more precisely,that of S-shaped curve. The results from the smooth transition regression model indicate that the current turn-point is 4 189.30 US dollar per capita. China has already passed this point since 2005. However China has not entered a “high regime”path. This paper suggests that China further implements the strategy of high starting point of regional harmonious development,forms a com-plete set of sound macroeconomic policies,with deepening the reform of income distribution system.