In 2016,the macro-economy exhibits the trend of short-term bottom stabilization and con-verging bubbles. As the potential growth level shifting downward,combined with cyclical,structural,and tendency factors,together they are still causing tremendous downward pressure,and will lead to continu-ous bottom-formation in the upcoming year of 2017. However,the depth and length of bottom-formation are related to world economy recovery,growth level of China�s economy,cultivation of new industries and economy drivers,adj ustment of real estate cycles,fluctuations of political-economy cycles,solutions to potential economic risks and many other factors. Meanwhile,domestic debt scale has been skyrocketing, driven by the “debt-investment”driving pattern;this highlights the structural debt risks,as generalized government debt level exceeding the international warning line. The fundamental problems of China�s e-conomy are mostly correlated with debt risks,such as the converging asset bubbles,are actually the cur-rencies allocated by the“debt-investment”driving pattern,now circulating in the stock,bond,and real es-tate market;while debt risks may very well be the trigger China�s economic crisis. Judging from current situations,China is capable of preventing crisis,with sufficient attention on factors that may be the cau-ses. On one hand,it is critical to establish a correct understanding and coping mechanism of economic cri-sis;on the other hand,to establish a risk mitigation mechanism before debt risks evolve to crises.%2016年经济呈现出短期底部企稳与泡沫聚集的特点。在潜在增长平台下移、周期性、结构性以及趋势性因素共同作用的背景下,经济下行压力依然巨大,2017年宏观经济仍将持续筑底。而底部运行的深度和持续的长度取决于世界经济复苏程度、中国经济潜在增长水平、新产业新动能培育、房地产周期调整、政治经济周期波动以及对潜在风险的化解与对策等多种因素。与此同时,在“债务—投资”驱动模式下,我国债务规模快速攀升,债务水平已经积累至相当程度,债务的结构性风险突出,尤其是广义政府债务水平超出国际警戒线。而中国经济目前存在的深层次问题本质上大多与债务风险密切相关。比如资产泡沫的聚集,实际上是“债务—投资”驱动模式中投放的大量货币在股市、债市以及房地产等领域的伺机流动。债务风险有可能是引发中国经济爆发危机的关键点。从目前情况来看,中国具备防范危机的实力,但是对于可能引发危机的潜在因素必须重视。一方面,树立正确的危机观,不惧怕危机,建立危机应急机制。另一方面,在债务风险演变至债务危机前,防患于未然,建立风险缓释机制。
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