经济增长与环境污染水平的计量模型研究--以四川省为例

摘要

Based on the theories of Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC),econometric research of environmental pollution and economic growth from 1986 to 2011 in si chuan,Explore the succession of sichuan economic growth and environmental pollution.The results showed that:the EKC of industrial wastewater and industrial solid waste was“U-type+inverted U-shaped”curve characteristics,SO2 and industrial emissions was obvious “inverted U”curve characteristics;emissions of industrial wastes have passed through the peak turning points of EKC,Thereafter,with the per capita GDP growth declined.In-depth analysis of the reasons of the new shape of EKC indicated that the impact factors include Economic growth,industrial reconstructing,environmental protection investment and environmental protection policies.%以环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）为理论基础，对四川省1986—2011年环境污染水平与经济增长的关系进行统计研究，探索四川省经济增长与环境污染的演替轨迹。结果显示，四川省工业废水与工业固体废弃物的EKC呈“U型+倒U型”曲线特征，SO2与工业废气的EKC呈明显的“倒U型”曲线特征。并且污染物排放量均已渡过峰值，其后随人均GDP的增长呈下降趋势。上述分析表明，四川省EKC特征与经济增长、产业结构变化、环境保护投资、环境政策有密切关系。