气候变暖对半干旱区马铃薯产量的影响

摘要

基于西北典型半干旱区马铃薯定位观测试验，结合气候要素平行观测资料，研究了半干旱区马铃薯产量对气候变化的响应。结果表明，1957—2015年间（59 a），西北半干旱区在气温显著上升，气温和降水量气候倾向率分别为0.238℃/10 a、-10.517 mm/10 a。马铃薯产量与苗期（6月）呈显著负相关（P<0.01），与块茎膨大期（8月）气温也呈负相关（P<0.10），6—8月气温每升高1℃，马铃薯产量下降4391.39~6798.46 kg·hm-2。产量与生育期≥0℃积温呈显著负相关（P<0.05），适宜≥0℃积温阈值为2307.4℃。产量与苗期降水量呈正相关（P<0.10），适宜降水量阈值为47.8 mm。产量与9月中旬日照时数呈显著正相关（P<0.01）。马铃薯生育期干燥指数与产量呈显著负相关（P<0.05），适宜阈值为1.88。研究还发现气温变化对马铃薯产量影响的敏感期在出苗至分枝期，而水分影响马铃薯产量敏感期分别在分枝到开花期和块茎膨大期，同时，块茎膨大期也是日照变化影响产量的敏感期。因此，气候变暖对西北半干旱地区马铃薯的生产形成了负面影响。%Based on the site-specific observation data and related meteorological records, the influence of climate warming on potato yield and the sensitivity of potato growth to climate warming had been analyzed. The results showed that the temperature has rose significantly from 1957—2015 in the study region. The climate tendency rates of temperature and precipitation were 0.238℃/10 a, -10.517 mm/10 a, respectively. Under this situation, the potato yield was significantly negatively correlated with seeding stage (P<0.01) in June, and was significantly negatively correlated with the air temperature in tuber expansion period (P<0.01). The yield of potato decreased by about 4391.39~6798.46 kg·hm-2 when air temperature increased 1℃ from June to August. There was a negative correlation between accumulated temperature above 0℃ and yield. The appropriate threshold of accumulated temperature above 0℃ is 2307.4℃. There was an positive correlation between precipitation in seeding stage and the yield of potato. The appropriate threshold of precipitation is 47.8 mm. There was a significant positive correlation between the yield of potato and sun duration in the middle of September (P<0.01). There was a significant negative correlation between the aridity index and the yield during the growing period (P<0.01). The appropriate threshold of aridity index is 1.88. During the tuber expansion period the potato was sensitive to the temperature. The yield is sensitive to temperature change from the emergence of seedling period to florescence period. The sensitive period of the potato yield to the precipitation was in the bifurcation-unfold period and unfold -tuber expansion period. And the tuber expansion period was the period which was sensitive to sun duration. Therefore, The climate warming have negative influence on potato production in the study area.