参考作物蒸散量（ET0）被广泛应用于估算生态需水、农业灌溉、区域气候干湿状况评价等方面，在气候和环境变化中起着非常重要的作用。基于山东省1961—2010年90个气象站的逐日气象观测数据，应用Penman-Monteith模型估算了区域内的ET0，研究了山东省ET0的空间分布特征和时间演变规律及主要影响要素，定量分析了各影响要素对ET0变化的贡献。结果表明，山东省年平均ET0为1028.4 mm，由东南沿海向西北内陆递增；夏季最高，其次为春季、秋季，冬季最低。年平均ET0变化倾向率为-1.818 mm·a-1，减少趋势极显著（P<0.01）；各季节均呈减少的变化趋势，夏季最明显；鲁西和鲁西南ET0的减少趋势最显著，向东则减少趋势减弱，至半岛东部部分站点则有增加趋势。全省年平均 ET0在1983年前后发生突变，春季、夏季、冬季分别发生在1969年、1987年、1971年，秋季没有突变。主振荡周期为12 a左右，不同年代表现出的周期性不一致，且多种周期尺度相互交叉。年际和各季节风速和日照时数呈极显著的减少趋势，对ET0变化的负贡献较大，是山东省ET0减少的主要影响因素；最高和最低气温、相对湿度对ET0变化表现为正贡献，在一定程度上消弱了风速和日照时数的负贡献。年际和季节各气象要素对ET0变化的总贡献率与ET0的实际变化率较接近，年际、春季、秋季、冬季对ET0减少变化的第一主导气象要素是风速，贡献率分别为-9.587%、-8.074%、-9.920%、-16.847%，夏季第一主导气象因素为日照时数，贡献率为-8.287%。%As a main component of the hydrological cycle, reference evapotranspiration (ET0) was widely used for understanding regional moisture conditions, estimating ecology water requirement and irrigating crop. ET0 played a very important role in the climate and environment change. Based on the daily meteorological data from 90 meteorological stations in Shandong Province from 1961 to 2010, the Penman-Monteith method recommended by FAO was used to calculate the ET0 and to analyze its spatial-temporal distribution characteristics. Major factors' contribution to the ET0 variation trend was also provided through partial derivative quantification analysis. Temporal variations in ET0 were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall method and Morlet wavelet. Results indicated that the mean annual ET0 was 1028.4 mm in Shandong Province during the study period. ET0 ascended from southeast coast to northwest inland, peaking in summer and reaching the bottom in winter. The damping of ET0 was greater before 1980s. The annual ET0 showed a significant decline with a rate of -1.818 mm·a-1. The decreasing trend was mostly prominent in west and southwest of Shandong and the increasing trend appeared in some stations of eastern peninsula. By using Mann-Kendall analysis, it had been found that the annual ET0 mutation happened around 1983, and spring-, summer- and winter-mutation happened in 1969, 1987, 1971 respectively with no mutation happening in autumn. The annual and seasonal ET0 presented oscillations of 12, 7, 16, 10 and 16 a respectively. The oscillation periods was different in each year and various periods crossed each other. As the main factors for ET0 decrease in Shandong, the annual and seasonal mean wind speed and sunshine duration decreased significantly and were dramatically positive-correlated with ET0. The total contribution from the annual and seasonal meteorological elements to the ET0 variation was close to actual changing in ET0. The main impacting factor on ET0 decreasing was wind speed meanly in spring, autumn, winter and the whole year with the negative-contribution of -8.074%, -9.920%, -16.847% and -9.587% respectively. However, in summer, sunshine duration was the dominant factor with negative-contribution of -8.287%.
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