上海市电力消费与经济增长及城市化之间的动态关系研究

摘要

By means of econometric methods such as the ARDL-ECM model and Granger causality test,this paper analyzes the dynamic correlation among electricity consumption,economic growth and urbanization in Shanghai from 1949 to 2009,and it is proved a long-term and steady equilibrium relationship.The long-run and short-run elasticities of income and urbanization are estimated,and as expected,the long-run elasticities are greater than the short-run elasticities.The error correction term of the vector error correction model(VECM) is remarkable,and its coefficient is negative,which implies that it indeed reflects an error correction mechanism that tends to bring the system closer to its long-run equilibrium.Granger causality test based on the error correction model is implemented among electricity consumption,economic growth and urbanization.With regard to empirical analysis,the corresponding policy recommendations are proposed.%借助于ARDL-ECM模型、格兰杰因果检验等计量方法,对1949～2009年上海市电力消费、经济增长和城市化水平之间的动态关系进行了分析。结果表明,上海市电力消费、经济增长和城市化之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系。估计出了电力消费的长期、短期收入弹性和城市化弹性,且长期弹性大于短期弹性,符合预期。向量误差修正模型中的误差修正项显著且其系数为负,说明具有将系统的短期波动调整到长期均衡的机制。基于误差修正模型检验了电力消费、经济增长和城市化之间的格兰杰因果关系。结合实证分析给出相应的政策建议。