安徽制造业碳排放驱动因素、锁定状态与解锁路径研究

摘要

Based on STIRPAT model and ridge estimation method,the paper analyzes driving factors of carbon emissions from the manufacturing industry in Anhui Province. The results show that energy consumption structure, manufacturing value-add-ed per capita and number of employees have a positive effect on carbon emissions. The elastic coefficients of three factors are 0.255,0.235 and 0.222 respectively,while the technical factor plays a negative role,which is-0.213. Furthermore,carbon emissions from the manufacturing industry in Anhui Province gather in four industry segments. Overall,carbon emissions are in“relatively unlock”state with the total amount increasing and the strength decreasing. It is very urgent to improve energy effi-ciency,adjust industrial structure and develop low-carbon manufacturing parks.%文章基于STIRPAT模型和岭估计法，分析安徽制造业碳排放的驱动因素。结果显示，能源消费结构、人均制造业增加值、从业人数对碳排放存在正向作用，弹性系数分别为0.255、0.235和0.222；技术因素呈负向作用，弹性系数为-0.175。并且，安徽制造业碳排放集中于4个细分行业，总体上处于总量上升、强度下降的“相对解锁”状态，迫切需要提升能源利用率，调整细分行业结构，培育低碳制造园区。