金融周期、“大而不倒”与银行业宏观审慎监管改革

摘要

The paper analyzes financial cyclicality and“too-big-to-fail”problem of important institutions in the industry from the perspective of capital regulation. The empirical study,based on banking panel data,indicates that the capital regula-tion has a pro-cyclicality,and important institutions in the industry display the feature of“too-big-to-fail”. This cyclicality is somewhat enhanced since China implemented progressively strict regulatory policies in the past ten years. The macro-pruden-tial regulatory reform will help to further avoid financial losses caused by pro-cyclicality. A great importance should also be at-tached to large financial institutions with systemic importance.%文章通过资本监管的视角，讨论了我国的金融周期性和系统重要性机构的“大而不倒”问题。基于银行业面板数据的实证研究表明，资本监管具有一定的顺周期性，系统重要性机构也存在一定的“大而不倒”特性。在过去10年间，由于我国实施了逐步严格的监管政策，这种周期性是有所增强的。金融宏观审慎监管改革将有助于进一步规避金融周期性带来的损失，而具有系统重要性的大型金融机构更应当受到关注。