城镇化、FDI与中国居民消费波动--基于省级面板数据的实证研究

摘要

文章利用2003-2014年全国30个省市面板数据，采用动态面板广义矩模型，从城镇化综合评价体系出发，实证分析城镇化与FDI对居民消费增长的影响作用。研究发现：全国层面上城镇化水平对居民消费增长有显著促进作用，不同地区人口城镇化、产业城镇化和土地城镇化对居民消费增长的影响有明显差异；FDI对居民消费增长存在正向作用，其影响存在地区差异且具有滞后性；城镇化与FDI的交互作用对促进居民消费呈显著正向作用。%By using the panel data of 30 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities from 2003 to 2014 and adopting the dynamic panel by GMM,the paper starts from the comprehensive evaluation system of urbanization and makes an empiri⁃cal analysis on the impacts of urbanization and FDI on household consumption growth. The study shows that urbanization has a significant positive impact on household consumption growth at the national level. And the impacts of population urbaniza⁃tion, industrial urbanization and land urbanization from different regions on household consumption growth are significantly different. FDI has a positive impact on household consumption growth,and its impact shows regional differences and has the characteristics of delay. The interaction of urbanization and FDI has a significant positive impact on household consumption growth.