经济增长对城市化发展的门槛效应分析--基于金融发展视角的实证

摘要

文章运用平滑转换回归模型（STR）分析经济增长对城市化发展的非线性门槛效应。通过搜集1978-2013年国内生产总值（GDP）、金融相关率（FR）和城市化率（urban）等变量数据，选取FR作为转换变量，构建经济增长影响城市化水平变化的STR模型。结果表明：经济增长是促进城市化发展的Granger原因，反之则不明显；经济增长对城市化的作用表现出非线性特征，可以通过非线性平滑转移模型来描述；经济增长对城市化变化的影响表现出非对称性，研究发现滞后3期FRt-3是导致这种非对称性的原因之一。具体表现为当FRt-3低于1.2973（1992年前）时，表现出线性特征；当FRt-3超过1.2973（1992年后）时，表现出非线性，并且1992年后经济增长对城市化率变化的推动力主要来自非线性部分。%This paper analyzes the nonlinear threshold effect of economic growth on the development of urbanization by using smooth transition regression model (STR). By collecting the data of gross domestic product (GDP), financial-related rate (FR) and urbanization rate (urban) from 1978 to 2013, the paper selects FR as the conversion variable to formulate the STR model which reflects the impact of economic growth on the development of urbanization. The results indicate that:Economic growth is the granger cause to promote the development of urbanization, but the converse is not true. The impact of economic growth on urbanization exhibits the nonlinear characteristics, which can be described by the nonlinear smooth transition model. The im⁃pact of economic growth on the changes of urbanization presents asymmetry features, and the research shows that lag 3 of FR is an important cause of asymmetry. Specifically as follows:When FRt-3 is below 1.2973 (before 1992), the model is linear. Con⁃versely, it is nonlinear (after 1992). And it also demonstrates that the impetus of economic growth on the changes of urbaniza⁃tion rate after 1992 mainly result from the nonlinear part.